Actuarial Valuation & Risk Modeling Studio
Matter: Castillo Estate & Survivors v. Continental Freight Carriers
Committee Status
READY FOR VOTE
Adjust Underwriting Risk Dimensions
Real-time FMC Algorithmic Engine1. Liability & Precedent Solidity (Weight 30%)92 / 100
Clear patent claims, low prior art risk, MTD 12(b)(6) dismissal denied.
2. Damages Quantification (Weight 25%)88 / 100
Audited commercial sales records, reasonable royalty forensic modeling.
3. Defendant Solvency & Coverage (Weight 25%)90 / 100
$50M Lloyd's insurance policy verified; investment-grade commercial balance sheet.
4. Counsel Historical Track Record (Weight 10%)85 / 100
Vance & Sterling LLP (84% win rate across 40+ complex IP lawsuits).
5. Venue & Jurisdiction Favorability (Weight 10%)80 / 100
S.D.N.Y. median patent trial speed (24.2 months), consistent discovery management.
Investment Committee Sign-Off & Term Sheet Voting
Computed FMC Rating
A+
88.6 / 100
Strong Merits: Recommended for Priority Syndication with 2.0x return multiple.
Monte Carlo 2,000 Iterations89% Win Prob
P25 (Conservative):$4,565,065.54
P50 (Median Recovery):$6,462,379.41
P75 (Optimistic):$8,379,676.50
• Advance Cap (15% Max): $1,275,000.00
• Proposed Advance: $650,000.00
• Advance-to-Damages: 7.6%